The short term model is in cash. Out of the 15 short term trades that have hit since we started this blog, we made money on 12 out of 15 trades for a total gain of 173.7 S&P pts. We made 19.3 pts from the January 28th short , made 2.9pts from the December 13th short , made 27pts from the May 21st long, made 6.9 pts from the March 12th short, made 6.2 pts from the September 2nd long, we lost 18.8pts from the short on July 20th, we made 17 pts from the long on July 9th,made 14.8pts from the short on June 5th, made 9.5 pts from the May 7th short ,made 45.2 points on the long from April 1st , plus a 12pt win on the Feb 24th long entry, 15pt win on the Jan 15th long entry, lost 17.3 pts from Jan 13th long entry, lost 17 pts onNovember 18th, and made 52 pts on the win from October 28th
The intermediate term S&P Model is long as of the close on January 31st. No open orders.
The NASDAQ model is short as of the close on January 6th. No open orders.
The VIX Model is short as of the close on January 31st. No open orders.
Ripe Trades
At left you will find a list of long and short candidates. Historically these long and short setups have performed quite nicely when using the entry levels specified next to the ticker and the exit rules below. Here is the real time out of sampleperformance reviewof the Ripe Trade results for the year 2008. These are the stocks that qualify for Today with the entry price limits specified , good for the day only.
Long Exit rules – Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is greater than 50 or exit on the first profitable open with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable open with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st open that is greater than my entry price.
Short Exit rules - Exit at the close on the day when a 2 day RSI close is less than 70 or exit on the 1st profitable close with a 1 day delay. The 1st profitable close with 1 day delay dictates that I hold the position for at least 2 trading days which includes the entry day then exit on the 1st close that is less than my entry price.
These setups don’t have a stop loss, our research has showed through back testing that this strategy works best without a stop loss. A few ways to limit the risk without a stop loss are 1) Position Size - lowering your position size lessens risk. 2) Watch out for single sector exposure, don’t let one single sector become too big a percentage of your account. 3) Consider using options for blowout protection. For longs consider buying way out of the money puts and for shorts consider buying way out of the money calls. This will create a catastrophe stop that protects you even if the stock has an extreme overnight gap.These setups are for education and entertainment purposes only this is not a recommendation or solicitation. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
Stocks ready to Breakout
Here is a list of stocks that meet the breakout trade setup criteria of a 10 day Bollinger band width in the bottom decile for a 200 day look back. (ADBE APOL BIDU COST CSCO DISH GENZ GRMN HSIC INTU LINTA LOGI ORLY PCLN SRCL SYMC VRTX WCRX WYNN )The next step is to look for a big gap tomorrow (greater than 1 range above or below the close) then enter on a bull or
bear range pivotin the same direction as the gap.The real time 2008 performance results are
hereOne thought on the breakout candidates is to incorporate trend and only take buy signals of stocks in an uptrend and sell signals for stocks in a downtrend.